Data on Job Creation by President

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Contents

Origin

The following table was compiled by the American Assembler [1]

There is a similar page on Wiki.

Raw Data

Job Loss or Gain by President and Party


  • (D) Roosevelt 5.3
  • (D) Johnson 3.8
  • (D) Carter 3.1
  • (D) Truman 2.5
  • (D) Clinton 2.4
  • (D) Kennedy 2.3
  • (R) Nixon 2.2
  • (R) Reagan 2.1
  • (R) Coolidge 1.1
  • (R) Ford 1.1
  • (R) Eisenhower 0.9
  • (R) G. Bush 0.6
  • (R) G.W. Bush -0.7
  • (R) Hoover -9.0

note: numbers are in percent

Analysis

These numbers appear to be average (over each president's term duration) annual percentage change in employment based on seasonally-adjusted nonfarm employment data.

Here are my rough calculations from Truman to Bush II; all data below are from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Estimate (1) is based on the percentage change in non-adjusted employment data for each calendar year in a president's term. It is simply the average of these yearly numbers. Only non-adjusted yearly numbers were readily available.

Estimate (2) is based on seasonally-adjusted nonfarm employment data. First the overall percentage change is calculated over the president's term, then an equivalent average annual percentage change is calculated from that, accounting for compounding the changes annually. For example, an annual 2% increase in employment over an 8-year term results not in 16% increase overall, but in close to 17.2% increase since 1.02^8 is about 1.172.

Estimate (3) is done in the same way as estimate (2), but based on non-adjusted data.

You will notice that in most cases, out of the three ways to calculate the annual percentage change in employment, the numbers given above in the list correspond most closely to estimate (2) below. I have also not accounted for discrepancies resulting from presidents leaving/assuming office in months other than January, as is the case with Ford and Nixon among others.

1945 - 1952 Truman (given +2.5 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1945 -3.6
  • 1946 3.1
  • 1947 5.2
  • 1948 2.3
  • 1949 -2.5
  • 1950 3.3
  • 1951 5.8
  • 1952 2.0

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +1.95%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 8-year term: +16.7%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Jan 1945 Employment in thousands: 41903 Dec 1952 Employment in thousands: 50164 Real change for the 8-year term: 8261 Real percentage change for the 8-year term: +19.7%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.3%


Non-adjusted data:

Jan 1945 Employment in thousands: 41444 Dec 1952 Employment in thousands: 51274 Real change for the 8-year term: 9830 Real percentage change for the 8-year term: +23.7%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.7%


1953 - 1960 Eisenhower (given +0.9 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1953 2.9
  • 1954 -2.4
  • 1955 3.4
  • 1956 3.4
  • 1957 0.9
  • 1958 -2.9
  • 1959 3.8
  • 1960 1.7

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +1.35%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 8-year term: +11.3%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 1952 Employment in thousands: 50164 Dec 1960 Employment in thousands: 53743 Real change for the 8-year term: 3579 Real percentage change for the 8-year term: +7.1%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +0.9%

Non-adjusted data:

Dec 1952 Employment in thousands: 51274 Dec 1960 Employment in thousands: 54601 Real change for the 8-year term: 3327 Real percentage change for the 8-year term: +6.5%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +0.8%


1961 - 1963 Kennedy (given +2.3 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1961 -0.4
  • 1962 2.9
  • 1963 2.0

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +1.5%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 3-year term: +4.6%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 1960 Employment in thousands: 53743 Dec 1963 Employment in thousands: 57360 Real change for the 3-year term: 3617 Real percentage change for the 3-year term: +6.7%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.2%

Non-adjusted data:

Dec 1960 Employment in thousands: 54601 Dec 1963 Employment in thousands: 58109 Real change for the 3-year term: 3508 Real percentage change for the 3-year term: +6.4%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.1%


1964 - 1968 Johnson (given +3.8 percent; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1964 2.9
  • 1965 4.3
  • 1966 5.2
  • 1967 3.0
  • 1968 3.2

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +3.72%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 5-year term: +20.0%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 1963 Employment in thousands: 57360 Dec 1968 Employment in thousands: 69245 Real change for the 5-year term: 11885 Real percentage change for the 5-year term: +20.7%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +3.8%

Non-adjusted data:

Dec 1963 Employment in thousands: 58109 Dec 1968 Employment in thousands: 70085 Real change for the 5-year term: 11976 Real percentage change for the 5-year term: +20.6%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +3.8%


1969 - 1974 Nixon (given +2.2 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1969 3.7
  • 1970 0.7
  • 1971 0.5
  • 1972 3.5
  • 1973 4.2
  • 1974 1.9

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.42%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 6-year term: +15.4%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 1968 Employment in thousands: 69245 Dec 1974 Employment in thousands: 77657 Real change for the 6-year term: 8412 Real percentage change for the 6-year term: +12.1%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +1.9%

Non-adjusted data:

Dec 1968 Employment in thousands: 70085 Dec 1974 Employment in thousands: 78419 Real change for the 6-year term: 8334 Real percentage change for the 6-year term: +11.9%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +1.9%


1975 - 1976 Ford (given +1.1 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1975 -1.7
  • 1976 3.2

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +0.75%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 2-year term: +1.5%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 1974 Employment in thousands: 77657 Dec 1976 Employment in thousands: 80448 Real change for the 2-year term: 2791 Real percentage change for the 2-year term: +3.6%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +1.8%

Non-adjusted data:

Dec 1974 Employment in thousands: 78419 Dec 1976 Employment in thousands: 81129 Real change for the 2-year term: 2710 Real percentage change for the 2-year term: +3.5%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +1.7%


1977 - 1980 Carter (given +3.1 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1977 3.9
  • 1978 5.1
  • 1979 3.6
  • 1980 0.7

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +3.3%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 4-year term: +13.9%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 1976 Employment in thousands: 80448 Dec 1980 Employment in thousands: 90936 Real change for the 4-year term: 10488 Real percentage change for the 4-year term: +13.0%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +3.1%

Non-adjusted data:

Dec 1976 Employment in thousands: 81129 Dec 1980 Employment in thousands: 91655 Real change for the 4-year term: 10526 Real percentage change for the 4-year term: +13.0%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +3.1%


1981 - 1988 Reagan (given +2.1 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1981 0.8
  • 1982 -1.8
  • 1983 0.7
  • 1984 4.7
  • 1985 3.2
  • 1986 2.0
  • 1987 2.6
  • 1988 3.2

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +1.93%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 8-year term: +16.5%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 1980 Employment in thousands: 90936 Dec 1988 Employment in thousands: 106871 Real change for the 8-year term: 15935 Real percentage change for the 8-year term: +17.5%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.0%

Non-adjusted data:

Dec 1980 Employment in thousands: 91655 Dec 1988 Employment in thousands: 107687 Real change for the 8-year term: 16032 Real percentage change for the 8-year term: +17.5%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.0%


1989 - 1992 Bush (given +0.6 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1989 2.5
  • 1990 1.4
  • 1991 -1.0
  • 1992 0.3

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +0.8%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 4-year term: +3.2%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 1988 Employment in thousands: 106871 Dec 1992 Employment in thousands: 109418 Real change for the 4-year term: 2547 Real percentage change for the 4-year term: +2.4%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +0.6%

Non-adjusted data:

Dec 1988 Employment in thousands: 107687 Dec 1992 Employment in thousands: 110186 Real change for the 4-year term: 2499 Real percentage change for the 4-year term: +2.3%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +0.6%


1993 - 2000 Clinton (given +2.4 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 1993 1.9
  • 1994 3.1
  • 1995 2.6
  • 1996 2.1
  • 1997 2.6
  • 1998 2.6
  • 1999 2.4
  • 2000 2.2

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.44%

Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 8-year term: +21.2%


Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 1992 Employment in thousands: 109418 Dec 2000 Employment in thousands: 132441 Real change for the 8-year term: 23023 Real percentage change for the 8-year term: +21.0%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.4%


Non-adjusted data:

Dec 1992 Employment in thousands: 110186 Dec 2000 Employment in thousands: 133308 Real change for the 8-year term: 23122 Real percentage change for the 8-year term: +20.1%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: +2.4%


2001 - 2004 (2003 data) GW Bush (given -0.7 percent above; compare with (1), (2), (3) below)

Annual percentage change in employment (non-adjusted):

  • 2001 0.0
  • 2002 -1.1
  • 2003 -0.3

(1) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: -0.47%


Corresponding compounded percentage change for the 3 years: -1.4%

Seasonally adjusted data:

Dec 2000 Employment in thousands: 132441 Dec 2003 Employment in thousands: 130035 Real change for the 3 years: -2406 Real percentage change for the 3 years : -1.8%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: -0.6%

Jun 2004 Employment in thousands (est): 131301 Real change Dec 2000 - Jun 2004: -1140 Real percentage change Dec 2000 - Jun 2004 : -0.9%

(2) Corresponding average annual percentage change Dec 2000 - Jun 2004: -0.25%

Non-adjusted data:

Dec 2000 Employment in thousands: 133308 Dec 2003 Employment in thousands: 130862 Real change for the 3 years: -2446 Real percentage change for the 3 years : -0.8%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change in employment: -0.6%

Jun 2004 Employment in thousands (est): 132359 Real change Dec 2000 - Jun 2004: -949 Real percentage change Dec 2000 - Jun 2004 : -0.7%

(3) Corresponding average annual percentage change Dec 2000 - Jun 2004: -0.2%

Copyright Note

The information in section "Raw Data" is presumably copyright American Assembler. I was not able to reach them to obtain permission to copy their data. I have posted this information here on the assumption that the American Assembler would wish to have it disseminated. If you are a staff member for American Assembler and this is not the case, please contact me at [2] and I will remove this table immediately.

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