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Energize America Assumptions

From dKosopedia

DISCLAIMER - this is a working document, far from final form, and only portions of it have been vetted by the Energize America team.

Assumptions and Sources for Energize America


Sources Quoted in Acts

Other Sources


Acts I-III - Feebates and Fuel Economy Improvements

The following sources and data are relevant to:



(1) EA harmonizes AEO (2006), RMI (2003), and DOT (2004) categorizations of vehicles to simplify "feebate" program methodology and correct RMI and AEO understatement of vehicle stock. EA basis is DOT total registered vehicles, 2004, excluding military vehicles and total industry output. Per AEO, fuel efficiency of conventional and alternative fuel is constant across sectors.

EA compiles "business" + "utility" figures not explicitly Farm or Public under Commercial.

(2) EA "cars" reconciles RMI and AEO with DOT registered vehicle subclasses of Personal & Commercial (P&C) use. Categorically NOT "business" OR "government" OR "utility" vehicles: all two-seaters, minicompacts, subcompacts, compacts, mid-size, and large cars. Model shares by type in the AEO 2006 are calculated in EA/DOT totals and constant over the period. "Utility" and "business" combined. DOT data rounded.

(3) DOT categorically differentiated Trucks (Class 1-6) and Trailers (Class 7,8) across sectors. EA P&C details are estimates, based on DOT data types where available, and AEO assumptions of market shares of "business" + "utility" uses.

(4) AEO differentiates Light Trucks (Class 1, 2) for purposes of calculating lifecycle and fleet contributions to aftermarket sales. Residual stock of fuel inefficent vehicles affect EA program objectives and cashflows dependent on new vehicle purchases. AEO and DOT light truck models include SUVs, pickups, van, minivans and Other Light Truck. EA bases forecast truck type and sector on DOT and NADA figures, 2004-2005.

(5) DOT subclasses of P&C/Trucks combine Class 3-6 "utility" vehicles included in total P&C Trucks. DOT Trailers is a separate set of both sectors.

(6) AEO assumes a vehicle's product, distinct from useful (depreciable), lifecycle is a demand characteristic and integral of total vehicle stock and EA forecast growth. DOT 2005 registered vehicle data were unavailable at time of publication. EA assumes RMI LDV retirement rate 0.0769 constant for total vehicle registration over the EA period.

(7) Fuel efficiency, miles per gallon (EPA-rated mpg) and degraded or actual (On-road) mpg, for each EA vehicle model are averages from AEO Table 49 or RMI data or actual (2004) figures per model where available. Degredation factors assume increases in city/highway driving, congestion levels, rising highway speeds, and the amount of reformulated gasoline in use in a given year. EA rate of fuel efficiency improvement (constant) over the period assumes year of introduction and incremental fuel and capital cost of introducing new technologies as tabulated in the sources.

(8) EA standardizes Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) per vehicle per year at 15,000 to calculate program "savings" as the difference between base and efficient fuel costs, energy expenditure (Btu), fuel consumption (gasoline), GHG (tons/yr/vehicle) over the program period. Per RMI note on NEMS, EA does not distinguish between between fleet types, although AEO calculates marginal differences. (9) Total fuel use in gallons per year is the ratio of VMT to On-road mpg.

(10) EA mpgE Basis is standard for P&C and Public. Rebate is indexed to EPA-rated mpg of new vehicle purchases only. Fee is indexed to on-road mpg at registration renewal thereafter, approximately every 3 years, when emission tests are typically required.

(11) EA adopts AEO percentage shares of alternative fuel (AF) vehicles as tablulated for new sales over the period 2007-2020. EA data breaks are cars (LVD), trucks, and trailers, for both P&C and Public sectors. Cumulative penetration of total vehicle stock is calculated for program revenue (cost) over the period. Incremental "savings" are tabulated by total sales per year. Per RMI, EA does not assume a market for new technology type Trailer (HVY truck, DL 7,8) within the period. RMI efficiency MPG factors carried as SOA baseline EA 2020 fuel economy or EPA-rated MPG for the model.

(12) AEO 2006, Tables 36-45, sup_transportation.xls, estimate stock, average annual growth, technology type, and characteristics 2003- 2030 by region. Regional differences are statisticaly insignificant. Stock values include personal vehicles, fleet vehicles, and freight LT trucks. EA growth of new alternative fuel cars, LT trucks, and Hvy Truck (Trailer) taken for the period selected at random to apply DOT registration, 2004. AEO totals do not reconcile DOT 2003 or 2004 data.

(13) Excludes commercial buses in the original. AEO total vehicle stock 2004 given as 211.55M, compared to DOT 261.5M registered.

Acts I-III - Gasoline Prices


Acts IV and XI - Community and State Investment

This refers to Act IV - The Community-Based Energy Investment Act and Act XI - The State-Based Renewable Energy Investment Act

We need definitions of eligible state and local entities (local independent non-profit power authorities?) and what kinds of energy efficiency/renewable options are allowed. Presumably non-transportation, since transportation efficiency improvements are covered in Acts I-III?

Numbers questions:

Act V - Passenger Rail

This refers to Act V - The Passenger Rail Restoration Act.

Are there actually companies out there just waiting for federal assistance on permitting to build these high-speed intercity lines?

Passenger numbers - the act quotes "taking 90% of airline traffic for point-to-point trips of less than 2 hours (300 miles), and 50% of airline traffic for trips lasting 3 hours (500 miles)." - references?!

The following source outlines basic steps to significantly reducing US oil consumption through an expansion of electric rail infrastructure:

Act VI - Clean Coal

This refers to Act VI - The Clean Coal Generation Act.

What are we assuming here on reductions in CO2? Do we have projections on number of coal plants currently in planning phases, and planned rollout of new technologies? Or is the zero-carbon solution waiting for the demonstration plant (Act XII) first?

Act VII - Wind

This refers to Act VII - The Wind Energy Production Tax Credit Act

We need references on projected wind installations, existing production tax credit expenses, etc.

Also, references on the job creation numbers. Don't more jobs created add to the overall costs of the power? What's the balance there?

Act VIII - Solar

This refers to Act VIII - The 20 Million Solar Roof Act

Will we actually get 10 million solar heating units just by maintaining an existing credit? Do we actually want to? We need numbers on how much solar heating actually saves in CO2 etc compared with the best alternatives: gas heaters or geoexchange systems? Is it really worth the expected $20 billion investment for this component?

10 million (<6 kW) systems adding up to 15 GW? That would mean 1.5 kW average - is that what we would expect?

Act IX - Renewable Portfolio

This refers to Act IX - The Renewable Portfolio Standards Act

We need, at least, cost numbers on administration of a credit program of this sort.

Act X - Net Metering

This refers to Act X - The Federal Net Metering Act

Data on expenses associated with grid connection to enable net metering - what are the costs to business and end-consumers?

Numerical Relationships

Basic units


Baseline: AEO 2006


Reference year: 2004

US Primary energy use in 2004:

US CO2 emissions in 2004:

US Primary energy production by sector, 2004: - see

Target year: 2020

AEO 2006 projections for US primary energy use in 2020:

AEO 2006 projected US CO2 emissions in 2020 (assuming same ratios):

Electric Power: Technologies, Numbers and Costs

See Jerome's Diary Entry for some details on this. The following numbers are for the United States.






Solar Photovoltaic

Effects of Finance

The mix of options ranges from those with low capital costs but high fuel costs (natural gas and diesel generators) to those with very high capital costs and zero fuel costs (solar). Operations and maintenance costs in addition to fuel will add to the resulting cost per kWh. If a project can be financed with a low interest rate, higher capital costs may be manageable; if interest rates are high, then only projects with low capital costs will be economical.


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This page was last modified 17:41, 7 June 2006 by Arthur Smith. Content is available under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License.

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