Timeline of pronouncements of a critical period for the U.S. occupation of Iraq

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The following is a timeline of pronouncements of a critical period for the U.S. occupation of Iraq. Such pronouncements have been made by numerous politicians and military officials involved in the war.<ref name="timeisnow">Template:Cite news</ref>

In May 2006, Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting (FAIR) noted columnist Thomas Friedman's repeated use of "the next six months" as the time period in which, according to Friedman, "we're going to find out...whether a decent outcome is possible" in the Iraq War, starting in November 2003.<ref name="FAIR page 2884">{{

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}}</ref> Blogger Duncan Black then jokingly used Friedman's name as a unit of time, writing: "All candidates need to lay the foundation for what they're going to say a year from now ('two Friedmans' in the newly established Friedman time scale)...." [1] (see Friedman Unit).

Contents

Preparations for 2003 invasion of Iraq

Name Occupation Quotation-in-context Begin date End date
Donald Rumsfeld U.S. Secretary of Defense "It could last, you know, six days, six weeks. I doubt six months."

'TownHall Meeting' at Aviano Air Base, Italy"<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0301/p99s01-duts.html</ref>

February 7, 2003 September 6, 2004

"Mission Accomplished", May 1, 2003

Name Occupation Quotation-in-context Begin date End date
Pat Roberts U.S. Senator, R-Kan. "I think the next few months will be crucial."<ref name="timeisnow" /> July 3, 2003 October - November, 2003
Ike Skelton U.S. Representative, D-Mo. "We may be going through a series of weeks and months that are crucial."<ref name="timeisnow" /> July 10, 2003 August - October 2003
John McCain U.S. Senator, R-Ariz. "The next three-to-six months will be critical."<ref name="timeisnow" /> September 10, 2003 December 10, 2003 - March 10, 2004
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "The next six months in Iraq... are the most important six months in U.S. foreign policy in a long, long time"<ref name="FAIR page 2884"/> November 30, 2003 May 30, 2004
Hillary Rodham Clinton U.S. Senator "The next six to seven months are critical."<ref name="timeisnow" /> December 1, 2003 May-June, 2004
Tony Blair U.K. Prime Minister "The important thing is to realize we are about to enter into a very critical six months"<ref>http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/01/05/sprj.irq.britain.ap/index.html</ref> January 5, 2004 July 5, 2004

Iraqi Constitution signed, March 8, 2004

Name Occupation Quotation-in-context Begin date End date
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "What I absolutely don't understand is just at the moment when we finally have a UN-approved Iraqi-caretaker government made up of – I know a lot of these guys – reasonably decent people and more than reasonably decent people, everyone wants to declare it's over. I don't get it. It might be over in a week, it might be over in a month, it might be over in six months, but what's the rush? Can we let this play out, please?"<ref name="FAIR page 2884"/> June 3, 2004 December 3, 2004
Richard Lugar U.S. Senator, R-Ind. "The next few months will be critical." July 22, 2004 October-November, 2004
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "What we're gonna find out... in the next six to nine months is whether we have liberated a country or uncorked a civil war."<ref name="FAIR page 2884"/> October 3, 2004 April 3, 2005
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "Improv time is over. This is crunch time. Iraq will be won or lost in the next few months. But it won't be won with high rhetoric. It will be won on the ground in a war over the last mile."<ref name="FAIR page 2884"/> November 28, 2004 February - March, 2005

Iraqi National Assembly election, January 30, 2005

Name Occupation Quotation-in-context Begin date End date
John F. Kerry U.S. Senator, D-Mass. ""I will say unequivocally today that what the administration does in these next few days will decide the outcome of Iraq."<ref name="timeisnow" /> January 30, 2005 beginning of February, 2005
Zalmay Khalilzad U.S. Ambassador to Iraq "I think the next nine months are critical."<ref name="timeisnow" /> June 29, 2005 March 2006
General Barry McCaffrey U.S. Military Academy "I think the next 18 months are crucial."<ref name="timeisnow" /> July 18, 2005 January 18, 2007
John R. Bolton U.S. Ambassador to the UN "The next months will be critical."<ref name="timeisnow" /> August 4, 2005
Chuck Hagel U.S. Senator "The next six months will be "very critical" in Iraq, he said."<ref>http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/08/18/hagel.iraq/</ref> August 18, 2005 February 18, 2006
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "I think we're in the end game now.... I think we're in a six-month window here where it's going to become very clear"<ref name="FAIR page 2884"/> September 25, 2005 March 25, 2006
Lt. Gen. David H. Petraeus Commander, Multi-National Transition Command Iraq and NATO Training Mission Iraq "The developments over the next several months will be critical."<ref name="timeisnow" /> October 5, 2005 ~January - February 2006
Zalmay Khalilzad U.S. Ambassador to Iraq "[W]e are on the right track to start significant reductions in the coming year.... I believe within 12 months, Iraq will be well on its way towards success, will have made significant progress from where we are today. "<ref>http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec05/zalmay_10-25.html</ref> October 25, 2005 October 25, 2006
John F. Kerry U.S. Senator (D-Mass) "We are entering a make-or-break six-month period."<ref name="timeisnow" /> October 26, 2005 April 26, 2006
John Warner U.S. Senator "We've got, I think, six months."<ref name="timeisnow" /> November 17, 2005 May 17, 2006
Joe Biden U.S. Senator "You only have about the next six months."<ref name="timeisnow" /> November 21, 2005 May 21, 2006
Joe Biden U.S. Senator "I think we have a six-month window here to get it right."<ref name="id/10154103">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10154103/</ref> November 27, 2005 May 27, 2006
John Warner U.S. Senator "we've got to stay firm for the next six months. It is a critical period..."<ref name="id/10154103"/> November 27, 2005 May 27, 2006
John McCain U.S. Senator "we will probably see significant progress in the next six months to a year"<ref>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10266650/</ref> December 4, 2005 June 4, 2006 - December 4, 2006
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "I think the next six months really are going to determine whether this country is going to collapse"<ref name="FAIR page 2884"/> December 18, 2005 June 18, 2006
Joe Biden U.S. Senator "Next six months are going to tell the story."<ref>http://biden.senate.gov/newsroom/details.cfm?id=249944</ref> December 18, 2005 June 18, 2006
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "I think that we're going to know after six to nine months whether this project has any chance of succeeding"<ref name="FAIR page 2884"/> January 23, 2006 July 23, 2006

Al-Askari Mosque bombing, February 22, 2006

Name Occupation Quotation-in-context Begin date End date
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "I think we are in the end game. The next six to nine months are going to tell whether we can produce a decent outcome in Iraq."<ref name="FAIR page 2884"/> March 2, 2006 September 2, 2006
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "we're going to find out... in the next year to six months - probably sooner - whether a decent outcome is possible"<ref name="FAIR page 2884"/> May 11, 2006 November 11, 2006
Zalmay Khalilzad U.S. Ambassador "The next six months will be critical in terms of reining in the danger of civil war. If the government fails to achieve this, it will have lost its opportunity"<ref>http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,419978,00.html</ref> June 7, 2006 December 7, 2006
General Barry McCaffrey U.S. Military Academy "I think between now and Christmas [six months] is the crucial time."<ref>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13189411/page/2/</ref> June 11, 2006 December 25, 2006
Joe Biden U.S. Senator "one year from now, if there is not significant progress... 'there's going to be really no prospect... of keeping any large number of American forces here.'"<ref name="AR2006070700029_pf.html"/> July 7, 2006 July 7, 2007
Lee Hamilton ISG Co-Chair "The next three months are critical."<ref>http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2006/09/20/MNGOAL8RES1.DTL&type=printable</ref> September 20, 2006 December 20, 2006
General George Casey U.S. Army "I don't have a date, but I can see over the next 12 to 18 months, the Iraqi security forces progressing to a point where they can take on the security responsibilities for the country, with very little coalition support."<ref>http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2006-08-30-iraq-security_x.htm</ref> August 29, 2006 February 29, 2008
Zalmay Khalilzad U.S. Ambassador "He has a window of a couple months...If the perception is that this unity government is not able to deal with this issue, then a big opportunity would have been lost"<ref>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15069942/from/RS.2/</ref> September 30, 2006 November 30, 2006
General George Casey U.S. Army "said that the next six months will be a decisive period that will determine Iraq's future"<ref>http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05102006/323/iraq-entering-decisive-six-months-general-casey.html</ref> October 5, 2006 April 5, 2007
Tony Blair U.K. Prime Minister "Blair gives Iraq 12 months to be ready for handover"<ref>http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1929000,00.html</ref> October 23, 2006 October 23, 2007
John McCain U.S. Senator "Mr. McCain said that the fate of the Iraqi venture would be decided in the next six months or so"<ref>http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/washington/14mccain.html</ref> November 13, 2006 May 13, 2007
General John Abizaid CENTCOM Commander "[A Senator] asked General Abizaid how much time the United States had to bring down the violence in Baghdad... the answer was four to six months"<ref>http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/15/world/middleeast/16policycnd.html?pagewanted=print</ref> November 15, 2006 May 15, 2007
Mary Matalin Republican strategist "[S]ecurity is an essential precondition for a political solution... But we will be able to know in the next six months, although the sustained effort has to take longer than six months."<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> January 10, 2007 July 10, 2007
General George Casey US commander in Iraq "I think it's probably going to be late summer before you get to the point where people in Baghdad feel safe in their neighborhoods."<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> January 19, 2007 late August, 2007
John Boehner House GOP leader "I think it'll be rather clear in the next sixty to ninety days as to whether this plan's going to work."<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> January 23, 2007 April 23, 2007
Norm Coleman U.S. Senator "Probably six months to a year, for everything. And I talked to some of my colleagues tonight, the military knows, I think they know, that they have to produce big-time over the next six months."<ref>{{
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}}</ref> | January 24, 2007 | July 24, 2007 |}

Iraq War troop surge of 2007

Name Occupation Quotation-in-context Begin date End date
Top advisors to Gen. David Petraeus in Baghdad "An elite team of officers, leading experts in counter-insurgency" "the US has six months to win the war in Iraq - or face a Vietnam-style collapse in political and public support that could force the military into a hasty retreat."<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> February 27, 2007 August 27, 2007
Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno ground commander for U.S. military operations in Iraq "The surge needs to go through the beginning of next year for sure... What I am trying to do is to get until April so we can decide whether to keep it going or not. Are we making progress? If we're not making any progress, we need to change our strategy. If we're making progress, then we need to make a decision on whether we continue to surge."<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> May 1, 2007 January 1, 2008 - April 1, 2008
Gordon Smith U.S. Senator, R-OR "Many of my Republican colleagues have been promised they will get a straight story on the surge by September. I won't be the only Republican, or one of two Republicans, demanding a change in our disposition of troops in Iraq at that point. That is very clear to me."<ref name="septemberkey">Template:Cite news</ref> May 8, 2007 September, 2007
Jim Moran U.S. Rep., D-VA "If we don't see a light at the end of the tunnel, September is going to be a very bleak month for this administration."<ref name="septemberkey" /> May 8, 2007 September, 2007
John Boehner U.S. Rep., R-OH "By the time we get to September, October, members are going to want to know how well this is working, and if it isn't, what's Plan B."<ref name="septemberkey" /> May 8, 2007 September-October, 2007
Norm Coleman U.S. Senator, R-Minn "There is a sense that by September, you've got to see real action on the part of Iraqis. I think everybody knows that, I really do."<ref name="septemberkey" /> May 8, 2007 September, 2007

References

<references />

This article incorporates material from the Wikipedia article "Timeline of pronouncements of a critical period for the U.S. occupation of Iraq". The list of authors can be found here. The principal authors of the version copied were the Wikipedians who edit as "User At Work" and "MPS".
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